This Is What An Exponential Spread Of C-19 Will Look Like
Health experts in the Twenty-Six Counties yesterday revealed that there could be up to 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 within the state by the end of March. It’s likely that many people were shocked to hear that the number of confirmed cases could increase from the current level of 292 to 15,000 in just two weeks.
It is the ability of Covid-19 to spread exponentially that makes it so very dangerous. Because the virus is new to humans, we have have absolutely no resistance to it.
This means that anyone who is exposed to the virus is very likely to become infected, no matter how young they are, no matter how healthy they are, no matter how strong their immune system is.
It seems the everyone who is infected is capable of spreading the virus every time they cough, clear their throat and even breathe. When that happens close to other people for more than a few minutes, they too are likely to become infected.
The immune systems of younger, healthy people are generally able to defeat the new enemy within fourteen days or less. During this period they may exhibit no symptoms (asymptomatic) or relatively mild symptoms, which means they could be spreading the virus without ever realising they are infected.
Older people, who tend to have weaker immune systems, develop more extreme symptoms as they battle the virus. They too can spread the virus before they even realise they are infected.
Covid-19 is, therefore, capable of spreading exponentially within the human population. This has already been seen in China, Italy, Spain and other countries where the numbers of CONFIRMED cases has been rising at alarming rates every 24 hours.
The figure of 15,000 KNOWN infections quoted by the health authorities in the Twenty-Six Counties is based on a growth rate of 30% per day. The chart directly below (up until March 16th) shows the rate of growth in the Twenty-Six County state since Covid-19 was first detected, with the percentage rate of increase shown on the far right of the chart. Based on these figures a daily increase of 30% per day of KNOWN cases to be a realistic figure.
Covid-19 cares nothing for Britain’s border in Ireland, so it makes more sense to look at the impact of exponential growth on an all-Ireland basis.
Today, there are 354 KNOWN cases of Covid-19 across the Thirty-Two Counties. If that number increases by 30% each day until there will be 18,000 CONFIRMED cases at the start of April as we show below.
March 17th - 354
March 18th - 460
March 19th - 598
March 20th - 777
March 21st - 1,010
March 22nd - 1,313
March 23rd - 1,706
March 24th - 2,217
March 25th - 2,882
March 26th - 3,746
March 27th - 4,869
March 28th - 6,329
March 29th - 8,227
March 30th - 10,695
March 31st - 13,903
April 1st - 18,073
If the rate of known cases continued to grow at a rate of 30% per day until Easter Sunday on April 12th, there would be 323,867 CONFIRMED cases on the island of Ireland.
April 2nd - 23,494
April 3rd - 30,542
April 4th - 39,704
April 5th - 51,615
April 6th - 67,099
April 7th - 87,228
April 8th - 113,396
April 9th - 147,414
April 10th - 191,638
April 11th - 249,129
April 12th - 323,867
This is a staggering figure, far greater than what the HSE and NHS would be able to cope with. And critically, this modeling is based on current, confirmed cases of Covid-19, not the actual number of cases that have not been picked up by testing.
Ireland is facing a challenge of historic proportions. If the spread of Covid-19 is not slowed down significantly, the health services will not be able to cope with the numbers of seriously and critically ill people that will present over the coming weeks. In that scenario the mortality rate from Covid-19 related illnesses and other illnesses will rise dramatically.
Every single person living on the island of Ireland has an unavoidable obligation to play their part in the fight against Covid-19 - to participate in a massive collective national effort to minimise the damage that this deadly pathogen does to our people. Together we must flatten the curve and reduce the number of people that become infected at the same time.
All of us must implement strict social distancing and rigid personal hygiene. And where possible we must get involved in community support networks and do all in our power to support our healthcare services and the critical supply lines for fuel, energy, communications, foodstuff, medicine and other essential services.