Varadkar's Prediction Of 15,000 Confirmed Cases Has Damaged The Fight Against Covid-19
Leo Varadkar’s claim that there would be 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 by April 1st was always bogus and potentially very damaging to the fight against the deadly pathogen. So why did he say it and what does it tell us about his suitability to lead the fight against Covid-19?
On March 16th, Varadkar stated, “We would expect that by the end of the month there would be maybe 15,000 people who have tested positive for Covid-19, most of those will not need treatment but a proportion will need to be hospitalised and we need to make sure that it doesn’t happen at the same time.”
The figure of 15,000 confirmed cases was based on a 30% daily increase in the number of confirmed cases from March 16th to April 1st. Such a scenario would have seen the number of confirmed cases rise from 223 to 14,839 over the 15 days in question.
But the number of actual confirmed cases on March 31st was ‘only’ 3,235, just one-fifth of Varadkar’s prediction. So why the massive difference between Varadkar’s projected number and the actual number of confirmed cases?
The simple answer is testing, or more precisely, the lack of testing. At the daily Covid-19 press conference on March 31st, Dr Cillian De Gascun revealed that a total of 30,213 tests had been carried out in the Twenty-Six Counties since the outbreak began. Just under 11% of these tests came back with a positive result.
Based on a return of 11% positive results, it would be necessary to test 137,000 people to find 15,000 positive cases. In other words, it would have been necessary to test almost 10,000 people per day since March 16th to find 15,000 confirmed cases by today (April 1st).
But there was never any possibility that the state was going to be able to conduct and analyse 10,000 tests a day because the capacity to do so simply does not exist, nor can it be created within days.
The National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD is currently able to analyse between 1,000 and 1,500 test samples per day. While additional laboratory capacity within a network of hospitals is coming online, the numbers of tests being analysed within these laboratories per day can be measured in the hundreds, not thousands.
It’s important to note that this limit on laboratory capacity has not been caused by the recent shortages of test kits and other materials.
Dr Cillian De Gascun, Chairperson the Expert Advisory Group on Covid-19 confirmed the total number of completed tests stood at just over 30,000 on March 31st, a figure that falls far short of the 137,000 that would have been necessary to find 15,000 cases of Covid-19.
Despite the current limits of the state’s laboratory capacity being widely known why did Varadkar state on March 16th that people should be prepared for 15,000 confirmed cases by today?
Was it a simple mistake by Varadkar? Did he confuse the number of projected confirmed cases with the number of projected actual cases? Was he given erroneous information by his advisors? Or was there a cynical political motive, whereby he can now claim that his leadership has already delivered a flattening of the curve?
Whatever the reason , Varadkar should never have put the figure of 15,000 confirmed cases into the public arena. There is a very real danger that some people will now become complacent in the battle against Covid-19 because the number of confirmed cases is just 20% of what Varadkar predicted it would be. The stakes could not be higher.
At a press conference on March 25th Varadkar was asked about the projected 15,000 confirmed cases. This presented a perfect opportunity for him to clarify why he put a bogus figure into the public domain. But he didn’t. Instead, he nervously muddied the waters by talking about the number of actual cases in the community, as opposed to the number of confirmed cases as can be seen here.
He also used the same press conference to reduce his projection to an unspecified figure lower than 15,000 confirmed cases, suggesting the reduced number may be a result of the measures that his government had introduced.
Éirígí accepts the enormity of the challenge facing the Twenty-Six County state and recognises that the government is making many correct decisions. We also understand that plans can change rapidly during emergencies and that it takes time to build new systems.
We fully support the World Health Organisation’s recommendation to ‘test, test, test’ and commend the incredible work that is being done by thousands of people to ramp up testing and laboratory capacity across the state.
But that does not mean that Leo Varadkar or anyone else is immune for legitimate criticism during this period of national crisis.
Now more then ever it is absolutely critical that the general population can believe in the competence and honesty of those who are tasked with managing the Covid-19 crisis. Because of the role that he holds this applies to Leo Varadkar more than anyone else in the country.
It is inevitable that mistakes will be made during an emergency of this type. It is the responsibility of the political leadership to ensure that such mistakes are acknowledged and explained in an open and transparent manner.
To date Leo Varadkar has not done this in relation to his claim that 15,000 cases of Covid-19 would be identified by today. Instead he has attempted to reduce the projected number without explaining why he is doing so. This should set the alarm bells ringing for those who believe he has the correct political skills to lead the fight against Covid-19.
His words have created a space for complacency to develop in the fight against Covid-19. Without mass testing nobody knows the true extent of the spread of the virus within the general population. That will not become clear for at least ten more days of the current lock-down.
Without delay Varadkar should explain why he encouraged the public to expect 15,000 confirmed cases by today, when it was simply not possible for that to happen. And he must also clearly explain what is going on within the overall Covid-19 testing system to a population who have good reason to question the ability of the HSE leadership to run an efficient, transparent screening programme.
A failure to do so will further undermine the public confidence in his political leadership of the Covid-19 crisis. Anything other than absolute honesty and transparency from Varadkar will ultimately damage the fight against the virus. If he cannot deliver honesty, transparency and competence he must step aside without delay.