Now Is The Time To Lock Down Against Covid-19
As the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Ireland continues to rise, Éirígí For A New Republic is calling on the Dublin and London governments to take decisive all-Ireland action now to slow the spread of the virus.
The Éirígí call for increased control measures is based upon the spread of Covid-19 in other countries and theoretical modelling of how the virus is expected to spread in Ireland. Speaking from Dublin, Cathaoirleach Brian Leeson said,
“Ireland is now at a critical point in the fight against Covid-19. Decisions which are taken by the Dublin and London governments in the coming days will determine the speed at which the virus moves through the population and the subsequent number of people that succumb to illnesses arising from it.
Theoretical modelling is predicting that up to three million people in Ireland could be infected with Covid-19 over the next year, with a large portion of that number falling sick during a peak of perhaps four weeks duration.
Based on the statistics from China and Italy we can expect about 5% of diagnosed cases to become seriously or critically ill. In the Irish context this could mean that several thousand people will be seriously or critically ill at the same during the peak of the epidemic.
Prior to the arrival of Covid-19 in Ireland, the HSE had less than 300 Intensive Care Unit beds. The figure for the Six Counties is approximately 100 beds. That’s a total of less than 400 ICU beds that are already at close to full occupancy.
Put simply we had no spare beds to deal with even a small number of additional critically ill patients, nevermind an influx of thousands of people who are seriously or critically ill with a highly contagious disease.
The fact that 100 staff from Cork University Hospital are now self-isolating because of contact with just one case of Covid-19 illustrates the scale of the crisis we are facing.
More than anything else we now need time to prepare our health services for the peak of a Covid-19 epidemic, to bring large number of additional beds online, to source additional staff, medication, safety clothing, ventilators and other necessary materials.
All of the available information strongly suggests that Covid-19 is moving through the Irish population in a similar way to how it moved in Italy. 50 cases have now been confirmed in multiple locations in Ireland. Most worryingly the source of infection for a handful of these cases is unknown.
If the Italian pattern is being repeated in Ireland, hundreds of other people are already infected in the community, many with minimal symptoms or entirely asymptomatic.
At the moment the Dublin and London governments are basing their actions on the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19. This is exactly the same approach that the Italian government took and only went into lock-down after hundreds of their citizens were dead.
Today we are calling for a suite of measures to be adopted to slow the advance of Covid-19 including:
an all-Ireland approach to be adopted for Covid-19 controls
the immediate closure of all schools, universities and other educational facilities for at least four weeks
all employers to be directed to allow staff to work from home where possible
staggering of start and finish times of large places of employment to reduce crowding on public transport
banning of all unnecessary public gatherings
widespread testing for Covid-19 within the community
restrictions on opening times and concentrations of customers in pubs, restaurants, cafes etc
travel restrictions on flights/boats from Covid-19 hot zones
the introduction of thermal and other health checks at all points of entry to the island of Ireland
These measures will not stop Covid-19, but they will slow it down and flatten the peak of the epidemic. And most importantly, they would buy time for our health and other services to prepare for a potential wave of thousands of very ill patients.
China and South Korea have shown that robust measures can slow the spread of Covid-19, creating time for health and other services to prepare for large numbers of infections. If we fail to take robust measures there is no logical reason to believe that Ireland won’t be where Italy is today in three or four weeks time.”